Archive for September 30th, 2011

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September 30, 2011

PREDICTION: Yankees win ALDS against Tigers in 4 or 5 games

by Jamie Insalaco

I know this isn’t the most definitive prediction ever, but this is the best I can do with the information I have.

Justin Verlander (vs. Sabathia), Doug Fister (vs. Ivan Nova) and Max Scherzer (vs. Sweaty Feddy Garcia) will start the first three games against the Yankees. However, the Tigers’ 25 man roster also includes Rick Porcello and Brad Penny, who are the team’s other two starters. Whether Tigers manager Jim Leyland plans on using one of these guys in a potential game 4 or bringing Verlander back on short rest (which is the way Joe Girardi plans on using C.C. Sabathia), I don’t know – so that leaves my predicting powers a conditionally restricted.

CONDITIONAL PREDICTIONS:
If Verlander pitches games 1 and not game 4, I say Yankees in four.
If Verlander pitches games 1 and game 4, I say Yankees in five.

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September 30, 2011

Yankees 25 Man 2011 Playoff Roster Speculation

by Jamie Insalaco

Now that regular season baseball is over, it’s time to cut the Yankees roster back to size. Here is who I expect to make the cut:

  1. A.J. Burnett
  2. Phil Hughes
  3. Boone Logan
  4. Hector Noesi or Luis Ayala
  5. Mariano Rivera
  6. David Robertson
  7. Rafael Soriano
  8. Cory Wade
  9. Ivan Nova
  10. Freddy Garcia
  11. CC Sabathia
  12. Russell Martin
  13. Austin Romine
  14. Robinson Cano
  15. Eric Chavez
  16. Derek Jeter
  17. Eduardo Nunez
  18. Alex Rodriguez
  19. Mark Teixeira
  20. Chris Dickerson
  21. Brett Gardner
  22. Curtis Granderson
  23. Andruw Jones
  24. Nick Swisher
  25. Jorge Posada

No Jesus
Given that the Detroit Tigers don’t have a left handed starter and I’m assuming that Francisco Cervelli is still hurt, I imagine it will be Austin Romine who is the back up catcher in the ALDS. He’s the superior catcher and Andruw Jones will be the left handed bat off the bench.

Bartolo Colon
Since the Yankees have decided to go with three starters in the first round (and probably will for the duration of the post season, should they advance), I don’t see any spot for Colon on the team. His velocity is down, and understandably so after an increased workload this season. I hope we can get him back for next year.

Hector Noesi or Luis Ayala
Well, one of these guys is going to be on the roster, but which? I tend to lean toward Ayala, who is older and more experienced rather than the young Noesi, who might have better stuff. It’s a tough call and you can’t go wrong either way because if either of these guys are in the game, it’s probably over anyway.

Bullpen
I see the Yankees carrying 8 relievers and 11 pitchers total. With Hughes and Burnett moving tot he pen… well, it’s pretty serious down there. Obviously, we’ll see the usual 3 headed monster combination of Soriano, Robertson and Rivera in the 7th, 8th and 9th, but I suppose Logan will be available to face Detroit’s Alex Avila, who is really their only lefty bat to speak of. So like you wold expect in any playoff game, starters will be on a short leash as Girardi can go to Phil Hughes for an inning (or maybe more, but I wouldn’t) of that sweet 95 MPH stuff he brandishes when he’s not starting. Shoot, even A.J. Burnett is good the first time through the order, so I don’t have any problem with him coming in for an inning and firing off the good stuff. Ideally, we get 6 strong innings out of our starters and don’t have to worry about this, but the combination of the three headed monster backed up by Hughes really ought to be enough to hold down a lead.

Let’s go Yankees!!!

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September 30, 2011

Season Over

by Jamie Insalaco

Are you ready for some baseball? That doesn’t start until after 830? What a delight for us on the east coast!

Yep, it all starts here: the chase for a 28th World Series Championship begins in the Bronx tonight as the Yankees meet the Tigers in game 1 of the ALDS, featuring a match up of titans in the persons of Justin Verlander and C.C. Sabathia.

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, C.C. Sabathia’s numbers from August until the close of the season concern me a bit, particularly when looking at his hits to innings pitched and his WHIP. Hopefully, the extra rest he’s received in the last week will bring him out of the box firing, but my understanding is that Sabathia is not particularly successful on extra rest, but we’ll have to hope for the best. So besides worrying about C.C. getting his butt kicked, we have to worry about Justin Verlander, too.

Verlander has faced the Yankees twice this year:

March 31: 6 IP, 3 hits, 3 runs, 3 ER, 1 homer, 4 BB, 8 Ks
May 2: 6 IP, 8 hits, 3 runs, 3 ER, 4 BB, 8 Ks

In the early goings of the season, Verlander wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire… as opposed to June and July, when he was. Maybe he likes the warm weather… He’s not going to get much of that tonight when it rains ALL GAME LONG!

June: 6 wins in 6 starts, 0.92 ERA, 2 complete games, 49 IP, 29 hits, 5 runs, 5 ER, 3 homers, 3 hit batters, 6 walks, 0 IBB, 54 Ks
July: 4 wins and 2 loses in 6 starts, 1.99 ERA, 45.1 IP, 33 hits, 14 runs, 10 ER, 2 HR, 0 hit batters, 7 BB, 0 IBB, 48 Ks

Verlander was just good in August with a 3.12 ERA in August and better in September with a 2.55 ERA, but not dominating the planet earth like he had in June and July. Still, he wasn’t exactly facing the Yankees and the Red Sox in those months, and thanks to some inter-league in June, he got to throw 7 IP of 1 run ball against the Mets.

Weather permitting, we’ll find out whether it’s the opponent, just getting stronger in the middle of the year or the weather itself that makes Verlander so dominant.

His amazing arsenal of pitches probably helps.

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